Shohei Ohtani burst onto the scene in 2018, accumulating 3.3 WAR (.331 wOBA) over 367 PA. He was impressive because he was able to hit the ball hard (92.6 MPH) and in the air (Launch Angle: 12.3 degrees). However, in 2019, he has actually not been as good over more PA than 2018 (1.4 WAR, .302 wOBA). There might be some leeway given because he is coming off Tommy John surgery. Yet, his decline seems more correlated to a change in his swing approach.

His major weakness in 2018 was his propensity for swings/misses (Zone Contact: 74.9%, League: 83.0%). In 2019, he has been able to increase his ability to make contact in the zone (2018: 74.9%, 2019: 79.3%) and out of the zone (2018: 56.9%, 2019: 61.0%). However, he might have sacrificed his ability to hit the ball in the air to increase his ability to make contact.

In 2019, his launch angle has decreased by 6 degrees (2018: 12.3 degrees, 2019: 6.0 degrees), which coinicides with his groundball percentage going up by 7% (2018: 44%, 2019: 51%). His ability to hit the ball and in the air in 2018 made him a top 5% hitter in all expected Statcast hitting metrics. However, in 2019, he has been above average, but not elite.

My question would be: Is decreasing your swing/miss rate, but increasing your groundball rate more sustainable for long-term success versus the opposite at the MLB level.